Two years after the Russian invasion, your support for Ukrainians means more than ever
Make no mistake: Ukraine will fight this war without us, but they might not win it.
When I crossed the Ukrainian border two years ago, I could scarcely imagine that Ukraine would not only capture my heart but also become the cornerstone of my activism. I planned to mark the two-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion by publishing a brief memoir about my own experience of the Second Ukrainian War of Independence. I have tried to write that story for almost two years now, but it is so intimately tied to the people I met—and lost—there, that I still find it impossible to finish.
Since I cannot bring myself to write about my own experience, I will instead mark this grim anniversary with a plea not to forget about these people whom I have come to love, the bravest I have ever met.
Conflict Desensitization
In the deluge of conflict coverage we are inundated with today, it is a human tendency to become desensitized; our emotional capacities are inherently finite, designed to empathize within a network scarcely broader than a hundred people. Two years after the full-scale Russian invasion, abstract sympathy for the plight of Ukrainians persists, yet it has been eclipsed by a collective desire to turn the page, especially as the narrative about the war shifted from swift battlefield victories to the harsh realities of a prolonged, grueling war of attrition.
But the transformation of Europe's largest war since World War Two into a protracted stalemate should not signal an end to Western support. On the contrary, it underscores the necessity for sustained, focused attention and aid. For the word ‘stalemate’ implies a frozen conflict, one that cannot be radically changed by decisions made by one or more actors to increase their material support for one side.1
Iran, for instance, has already made this choice, and their accelerated support of Russia’s aggression has darkened Ukraine’s skies with Zolfaghar missiles and filled the air with the blood-chilling whine of Shahed drones.
Two years after the full-scale Russian invasion, abstract sympathy for the plight of Ukrainians persists, yet it has been eclipsed by a collective desire to turn the page.
But will the Western democracies remain eager to provide Ukraine with the lethal aid that continues to be the lifeblood of its collective defense, indeed the only thing preventing its conquest? That remains to be seen.
The aim of this reflection is to reignite the spark of empathy and action and challenge my readers to encourage their governments to stand with Ukraine in its darkest hour. Together, we can affirm for Ukrainians that their fight is not forgotten.
The Depth of Ukraine’s Sacrifice
We are quick to applaud Ukrainians for their resilience in the face of adversity, but we must not forget that they still harbor hopes and dreams of a peaceful, sovereign future. They cannot remain forever in our minds as the bold, brave victims of Russian aggression. Their struggle has been ongoing for a decade, but it must end someday, and it must end in Ukrainian victory.
The stark reality that it is the Ukrainian people who bear the brunt of this conflict cannot be overstated. Every day, families are torn apart, futures dimmed, and the fabric of a promising democracy is frayed under the relentless pressure of war. How long can it hold up under such pressure?
And that is only the beginning. The mental health crisis that this war has created will have repercussions long after the fighting has stopped. What will become of Ukraine when a generation of her young men, battered and haunted by the wounds of war, become an unpredictable force in Ukrainian politics? What if they feel betrayed on the battlefield, abandoned by Europe, stabbed in the back by distant generals and selfish politicians?
Every fascist movement in history has relied on activating the restless sentiment of veterans who feel betrayed by the very people they fought to protect.
After all, who could possibly understand what they went through in Avdiivka, or Bakhmut, or Azovstal? Every fascist movement in history has relied on activating the restless sentiment of veterans who feel betrayed by the very people they fought to protect. If European and American lawmakers are actually worried about that elusive boogeyman of ‘Ukrainian Neo-Nazis,’ they should take care that they do not carelessly create the conditions that would allow them to emerge as a political force.
The European Union and the United States wax eloquent in their pledges of support for Ukraine, but it is not Americans, Brits, or Germans who are dying in the trenches of the Donbas under a hail of artillery fire. It is not London, New York, or Paris that glows nightly with the trails of rockets or whose populations shelter under the constant whine of drones.
These horrors are Ukraine’s burden to bear. It is up to us to make sure they do not bear it alone.
Understanding the Russian Mindset
Russia is the master of wearing her enemies down. When Napoleon and Hitler swept clear across her empire and barked at her gates, Russians—and later, Soviets—looked to two hopes for their salvation: time and overwhelming numbers. With these two factors on her side, Russia repelled every invasion of her territory and expanded her imperial periphery time and time again, yet her enemies never seem to learn this lesson.
The Russian strategy toward Ukraine, which seemed incalculably rash and utterly foolish at first, has revealed its hidden wisdom in the intervening years. To be sure, the Russian leadership may have genuinely thought that they could take Kyiv in three days, but what they knew was that eventually, the outraged Western democracies would inevitably tire of Ukraine and discard her due to trouble at home or promising new adventures abroad.
And so they waited, and though suffering incalculable losses of men and materiel, they bided their time while the comfortable and easily distracted denizens of happier lands stopped paying attention to their bold attempt to gobble up Ukraine. They waited for the news cycle to shift elsewhere, and then the humanitarian relief, and finally, the lethal aid.
Two years in, they are taking advantage of growing Western disinterest in Ukraine to ramp up their attacks against the country as a show of force to dissuade continued support by the West. But this is merely a show.
The Russian leadership may have thought that they could take Kyiv in three days, but what they knew was that eventually, the outraged Western democracies would tire of helping Ukraine.
Despite what you hear, Russia is on the ropes
The truth is that Russia has been critically weakened by the solidarity shown by the West toward Ukraine. Russia has lost nearly 90% of its pre-war army, including over three hundred thousand personnel, and more than two-thirds of its tanks. This was achieved by Ukrainians using weapons provided by NATO.2
Accounting for just 5% of American defense spending, these weapons are a negligible dent in Americans’ tax bill, but not in Ukraine’s ability to survive and repel the Russian assault. Headlines about the fall of Bakhmut or Avdiivka eclipse the battlefield reality that Russia sacrificed over a hundred thousand soldiers in 2023 alone to gain just .01% of Ukrainian territory.
That is a battlefield strategy that only works if you are relying on the fact that your enemies will grow tired of supporting your victims. Make no mistake, that is precisely what Russia is relying on.
Using our guns, drones, and tech, Ukraine has single-handedly tamed Russia’s imperial ambitions for a decade, and largely removed them as a regional threat to their neighbors for twenty years hence.
Whether you are a leftist anti-imperialist like myself, a liberal who believes in the rule of law and protecting democratic institutions, or a conservative who is eager to preserve the image of America’s strength abroad, supporting Ukraine is in your interest.
Headlines about the fall of Bakhmut or Avdiivka eclipse the battlefield reality that, in 2023, Russia sacrificed hundreds of thousands of soldiers to gain a negligible amount of Ukrainian territory.
International Support
While the attention of the West wavers, the spirit of Ukrainians remains unbroken. Their resolve to fight, to stand firm in the face of an aggressor's imperial ambition, speaks volumes of their courage and determination to secure a free and sovereign future.
Contrary to what Tucker Carlson or Max Blumenthal might claim, this is not some proxy war dreamt up in Washington with NATO as a shadowy puppet master guiding Ukraine’s every move. It is a life-or-death struggle for self-determination, a Second Ukrainian War of Independence. Ukrainians understand what is at stake, and they are waiting for us to understand it too.
The evolving role of the international community must transcend mere vocal support and symbolic gestures. Ukrainians demand a concrete, sustained effort to not only provide humanitarian assistance to those caught in the crossfire but also military aid to ensure that Ukraine can end the crossfire.
Ukrainians understand what is at stake, and they are waiting for us to understand it too.
The outpouring of international aid seen in the early days of the conflict must evolve into a steady stream of support, adapting to the changing needs of the Ukrainian people as they navigate the long road to peace. You can help with this, my dear readers.
Make no mistake; Ukraine will fight this war without us, but they might not win it. The question has always been ours to answer: Will we abandon Ukrainians in their darkest hour? Do we let them stand alone?
Resources:
Watch Note of Defiance, the short documentary film I helped produce in Ukraine.
Donate to Mission Kharkiv, the medical mission I co-founded in Ukraine.
Write your representatives and tell them to support Ukraine.
Follow these Ukrainian creators: Val Voshchevska, Yulia Afonina, Yulia Tymoshenko, Nastiya Lapatina, Marichka Buchelnikova
I highly recommend historian Timothy Snyder’s Financial Times article about why the ‘stalemate’ metaphor should not be used in discussions about the war.
See Warren P. Strobel, The Wall Street Journal, December 23rd, 2023.